Canadian Election Odds Shift Dramatically as Trudeau's Finance Minister Freeland Resigns

Canadian Election Odds Shift Dramatically as Trudeau's Finance Minister Freeland Resigns

By Marcus Bennett

December 16, 2024 at 11:59 PM

Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned today after rejecting a cabinet reassignment from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, triggering a political crisis amid growing U.S. trade tensions and plummeting Liberal Party support.

Trudeau and man at meeting table

Trudeau and man at meeting table

Freeland cited fundamental disagreements with Trudeau's leadership direction in her resignation letter posted on X, particularly regarding Canada's response to threatened U.S. tariffs. Housing Minister Sean Fraser also resigned following the contested cabinet shuffle.

Dominic LeBlanc was quickly sworn in as the new Finance Minister and presented a $1.3 billion border security package, partly aimed at addressing Donald Trump's threats of 25% tariffs on Canadian goods if border control isn't tightened.

Current polling shows Trudeau's Liberals at just 21% support, while the Conservative Party under Pierre Poilievre leads with 43%. Election betting markets heavily favor a Conservative victory, with odds ranging from -1000 to -2000 across major sportsbooks.

Key developments:

  • Trudeau's approval rating sits at 28%
  • Conservatives projected to win up to 233 seats in next election
  • NDP leader considering withdrawing support for Liberal minority government
  • Federal election scheduled for October 20, 2025, unless government falls sooner

Betting odds for next ruling party:

  • Conservatives: -1000 to -2000
  • Liberals: +500 to +1900
  • NDP: +2500 to +6000
  • Other parties: +5000 to +50000

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