Las Vegas Strip casino hotels are expected to experience weaker revenue growth in 2025, with analysts particularly concerned about non-gaming revenue performance. A Deutsche Bank analysis projects a 0.1% decline in gross gaming revenue (GGR) and a more substantial 2.4% drop in net revenue.

The first quarter of 2025 faces challenging comparisons due to the 2024 Super Bowl event in Las Vegas. Major operators MGM Resorts International and Caesars Entertainment, whose stocks have already declined over 20% year-to-date, are likely to feel this impact.

Key Revenue Projections for 2025:

• Slots: Modest contraction expected despite healthy handle rates
• Non-baccarat table games: Stable hold rates with slight year-over-year decline
• Baccarat: Low double-digit decline predicted
• RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room): Expected to compress by low to mid-single digits

Property changes, including the closures of the Mirage and Tropicana, along with planned renovations at MGM Grand, are not expected to significantly impact overall Strip supply and demand dynamics.

The forecast considers various factors affecting casino performance:

• Tough year-over-year comparisons, especially in Q1
• Declining non-gaming revenue
• Continued stability in table games hold rates
• Deceleration in RevPAR growth, with Q4 2024 expected to show the first contraction in years

These projections suggest a period of adjustment for Las Vegas Strip properties as they navigate post-Super Bowl market conditions and evolving consumer behavior patterns.

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