Flutter Entertainment has lowered its 2024 financial outlook following unexpectedly favorable NFL betting outcomes for customers. The company now projects revenue of $5.78 billion, down from the previous $6.05-6.25 billion forecast, with EBITDA expected to be $205 million below the earlier $505 million midpoint estimate.

The adjustment stems from the 2024/2025 NFL season being particularly "customer friendly," with favorites winning 71.8% of games through December 31 - the highest rate in nearly 20 years. This trend has significantly impacted sportsbook profits, as recreational bettors typically favor winning teams.

For Q4 2024, Flutter anticipates:

• Revenue: $1.59 billion
• EBITDA: $161 million

Despite these short-term challenges, Flutter maintains a positive long-term outlook:

• Global regulated gaming revenue expected to reach $368 billion by 2030
• Projected 8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
• 2027 revenue forecast of $21 billion (14% three-year CAGR)

The company's diversified international presence, particularly in Australia and Europe, helps offset US-related challenges. Strong performance in UK/Ireland markets, driven by favorable English Premier League results, is expected to boost 2024 revenue and adjusted EBITDA by approximately 1% and 2% respectively above previous guidance.

Flutter continues its share buyback program, targeting at least $350 million in repurchases by the end of the current quarter, demonstrating confidence in its long-term prospects despite temporary setbacks.

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